Riding profile

Stretford and Urmston

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Stretford and Urmston: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 37.3%
  • Reform UK 23.6%
  • Green 12.2%
  • Conservative 11.1%
  • Other 10.4%
  • Lib Dems 5.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereStretford and Urmston 37.3%23.6%12.2%11.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +15.5 25.4% −1.8 10.8% +1.4 19.3% −8.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Stretford and Urmston, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 37% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Andrew Western

Sits with Labour

Since
2022-12-15
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
35.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Western Elected Labour 22,642 49.2 —
Mark Cornes Conservative 6,492 14.1 —
Charlotte Faulkner Reform UK 5,485 11.9 —
Khalila Chaudry Other 4,461 9.7 —
Daniel Jerrome Green 4,398 9.6 —
Mark Clayton Lib Dems 2,216 4.8 —
Jim Newell Other 308 0.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,594
Median age
39
Employment rate
81.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029