Riding profile

Stretford and Urmston

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Stretford and Urmston: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Stretford and Urmston, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 34% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Andrew Western

Sits with Labour

Since
2022-12-15
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.7%
  • Reform UK 22.9%
  • Green 17.4%
  • Conservative 10.9%
  • Other 8.8%
  • Lib Dems 5.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereStretford and Urmston 33.7%22.9%17.4%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +12.0 25.3% −2.4 11.8% +5.6 18.9% −7.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
35.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Western Elected Labour 22,642 49.2
Mark Cornes Conservative 6,492 14.1
Charlotte Faulkner Reform UK 5,485 11.9
Khalila Chaudry Other 4,461 9.7
Daniel Jerrome Green 4,398 9.6
Mark Clayton Lib Dems 2,216 4.8
Jim Newell Other 308 0.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,594
Median age
39
Employment rate
81.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029