Riding profile

Worsley and Eccles

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Worsley and Eccles: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.9%
  • Reform UK 33.0%
  • Conservative 13.0%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Lib Dems 5.6%
  • Other 4.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereWorsley and Eccles 33.9%33.0%13.0%9.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +12.0 25.4% +7.6 19.3% −6.3 10.8% −1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Worsley and Eccles, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 34% vote share, against 33% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Michael Wheeler

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michael Wheeler Elected Labour 20,277 47.7
Craig Birtwistle Reform UK 9,186 21.6
Bradley Mitchell Conservative 6,791 16.0
David Jones Green 3,283 7.7
Jemma De Vincenzo Lib Dems 1,851 4.3
Nas Barghouti Other 466 1.1
Danny Moloney Other 448 1.1
Sally Griffiths Other 241 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,900
Median age
39
Employment rate
73.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029