Riding profile
Bury South
The question
Bury South: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBury South | 31.7% | 28.7% | 18.8% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +9.9 | 25.4% +3.3 | 19.3% −0.5 | 10.8% −1.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bury South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Christian Wakeford
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Wakeford Elected | Labour | 19,247 | 45.6 | — |
| Arnie Saunders | Conservative | 9,886 | 23.4 | — |
| Jeff Armstrong | Reform UK | 6,865 | 16.3 | — |
| Michael Welton | Green | 2,715 | 6.4 | — |
| Andrew Page | Lib Dems | 1,796 | 4.3 | — |
| Sameera Ashraf | Other | 1,023 | 2.4 | — |
| Michael Elston | Other | 277 | 0.7 | — |
| Stephen Morris | Other | 224 | 0.5 | — |
| Dan Ross | Other | 181 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029