Riding profile
Bolton South and Walkden
The question
Bolton South and Walkden: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Bolton South and Walkden, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Yasmin Qureshi
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBolton South and Walkden | 33.4% | 25.9% | 13.8% | 11.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.1 | 21.7% +4.2 | 11.8% +1.9 | 4.8% +6.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yasmin Qureshi Elected | Labour | 15,093 | 40.9 | — |
| Julie Pattison | Reform UK | 8,350 | 22.6 | — |
| Jack Khan | Other | 4,673 | 12.7 | — |
| Mohammed Afzal | Conservative | 4,170 | 11.3 | — |
| Philip Kochitty | Green | 2,827 | 7.7 | — |
| Gemma Bowker | Lib Dems | 1,384 | 3.8 | — |
| Abraham Halliwell | Other | 433 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029