Riding profile
Bolton South and Walkden
The question
Bolton South and Walkden: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBolton South and Walkden | 31.6% | 29.2% | 13.2% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +6.2 | 21.8% +7.4 | 5.0% +8.1 | 10.8% +0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bolton South and Walkden, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Yasmin Qureshi
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yasmin Qureshi Elected | Labour | 15,093 | 40.9 | — |
| Julie Pattison | Reform UK | 8,350 | 22.6 | — |
| Jack Khan | Other | 4,673 | 12.7 | — |
| Mohammed Afzal | Conservative | 4,170 | 11.3 | — |
| Philip Kochitty | Green | 2,827 | 7.7 | — |
| Gemma Bowker | Lib Dems | 1,384 | 3.8 | — |
| Abraham Halliwell | Other | 433 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029