Riding profile
Bury North
The question
Bury North: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBury North | 30.1% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +8.3 | 25.4% +4.1 | 19.3% +3.0 | 10.8% −3.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bury North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mr James Frith
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Frith Elected | Labour | 19,625 | 43.1 | — |
| James Daly | Conservative | 12,681 | 27.9 | — |
| Lynda Rosewell | Reform UK | 7,385 | 16.2 | — |
| Shafat Ali | Other | 1,917 | 4.2 | — |
| Owain Sutton | Green | 1,747 | 3.8 | — |
| Mark Alcock | Lib Dems | 1,317 | 2.9 | — |
| Anwarul Haq | Other | 571 | 1.3 | — |
| Spencer Donnelly | Other | 277 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029