Riding profile
Bury North
The question
Bury North: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Bury North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mr James Frith
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBury North | 28.9% | 27.6% | 22.9% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.6 | 21.7% +6.0 | 18.9% +4.0 | 11.8% −2.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Frith Elected | Labour | 19,625 | 43.1 | — |
| James Daly | Conservative | 12,681 | 27.9 | — |
| Lynda Rosewell | Reform UK | 7,385 | 16.2 | — |
| Shafat Ali | Other | 1,917 | 4.2 | — |
| Owain Sutton | Green | 1,747 | 3.8 | — |
| Mark Alcock | Lib Dems | 1,317 | 2.9 | — |
| Anwarul Haq | Other | 571 | 1.3 | — |
| Spencer Donnelly | Other | 277 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029