Riding profile
Salford
The question
Salford: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSalford | 40.2% | 24.5% | 15.8% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +18.4 | 25.4% −0.9 | 10.8% +5.0 | 19.3% −11.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Salford, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 40% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Rebecca Long Bailey
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Long-Bailey Elected | Labour | 21,132 | 53.2 | — |
| Keith Whalley | Reform UK | 6,031 | 15.2 | — |
| Wendy Olsen | Green | 5,188 | 13.1 | — |
| Hilary Scott | Conservative | 3,583 | 9.0 | — |
| Jake Austin | Lib Dems | 2,752 | 6.9 | — |
| Mustafa Abdullah | Other | 791 | 2.0 | — |
| Stephen Lewthwaite | Other | 227 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029