Riding profile

Manchester Rusholme

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Manchester Rusholme: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Manchester Rusholme, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 32% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Afzal Khan

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 35.8%
  • Green 32.0%
  • Reform UK 14.9%
  • Other 11.0%
  • Conservative 3.4%
  • Lib Dems 2.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Other
HereManchester Rusholme 35.8%32.0%14.9%11.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +14.1 11.8% +20.2 25.3% −10.5 4.8% +6.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
28.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Afzal Khan Elected Labour 15,054 51.9
Thirza Asanga-Rae Green 6,819 23.5
Mohhamed Bilal Other 3,660 12.6
Alexandra Marsanu Conservative 1,678 5.8
Joel McGuigan Reform UK 1,313 4.5
Faraz Bhatti Other 342 1.2
Peter Clifford Other 167 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
115,981
Median age
25
Employment rate
68.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029