Riding profile

Gorton and Denton

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Gorton and Denton: will Green lose this seat to Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.1%
  • Green 25.9%
  • Reform UK 23.9%
  • Other 7.1%
  • Conservative 6.0%
  • Lib Dems 3.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Other
HereGorton and Denton 33.1%25.9%23.9%7.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +11.3 10.8% +15.1 25.4% −1.4 5.0% +2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Gorton and Denton, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hannah Spencer

Sits with Green

Since
2026-02-26
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
36.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Gwynne Elected Labour 18,555 50.8
Lee Moffitt Reform UK 5,142 14.1
Amanda Gardner Green 4,810 13.2
Amir Burney Other 3,766 10.3
Ruth Welsh Conservative 2,888 7.9
John Reid Lib Dems 1,399 3.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
115,037
Median age
35
Employment rate
68.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029