Riding profile

Blackley and Middleton South

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Blackley and Middleton South: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Blackley and Middleton South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 37% vote share, against 31% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Graham Stringer

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.7%
  • Reform UK 31.1%
  • Green 16.1%
  • Conservative 8.0%
  • Lib Dems 6.8%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereBlackley and Middleton South 36.7%31.1%16.1%8.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +15.1 25.3% +5.7 11.8% +4.3 18.9% −10.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
32.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Graham Stringer Elected Labour 16,864 53.8
Alison Devine Reform UK 6,614 21.1
Dylan Lewis-Creser Green 3,197 10.2
Iftikhar Ahmed Conservative 3,073 9.8
Iain Donaldson Lib Dems 1,592 5.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,799
Median age
35
Employment rate
62.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029