Riding profile
Blackley and Middleton South
The question
Blackley and Middleton South: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBlackley and Middleton South | 39.4% | 31.9% | 13.2% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +17.6 | 25.4% +6.5 | 10.8% +2.4 | 19.3% −10.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Blackley and Middleton South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 39% vote share, against 32% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Graham Stringer
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Stringer Elected | Labour | 16,864 | 53.8 | — |
| Alison Devine | Reform UK | 6,614 | 21.1 | — |
| Dylan Lewis-Creser | Green | 3,197 | 10.2 | — |
| Iftikhar Ahmed | Conservative | 3,073 | 9.8 | — |
| Iain Donaldson | Lib Dems | 1,592 | 5.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029