Riding profile
Blackley and Middleton South
The question
Blackley and Middleton South: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Blackley and Middleton South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 37% vote share, against 31% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Graham Stringer
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBlackley and Middleton South | 36.7% | 31.1% | 16.1% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +15.1 | 25.3% +5.7 | 11.8% +4.3 | 18.9% −10.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Stringer Elected | Labour | 16,864 | 53.8 | — |
| Alison Devine | Reform UK | 6,614 | 21.1 | — |
| Dylan Lewis-Creser | Green | 3,197 | 10.2 | — |
| Iftikhar Ahmed | Conservative | 3,073 | 9.8 | — |
| Iain Donaldson | Lib Dems | 1,592 | 5.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029