Riding profile

Heywood and Middleton North

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Heywood and Middleton North: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.9%
  • Labour 28.4%
  • Conservative 14.6%
  • Other 11.0%
  • Lib Dems 6.4%
  • Green 4.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Other
HereHeywood and Middleton North 34.9%28.4%14.6%11.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.5 21.8% +6.6 19.3% −4.7 5.0% +5.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Heywood and Middleton North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mrs Elsie Blundell

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Elsie Blundell Elected Labour 15,069 40.6 —
Steve Potter Reform UK 8,987 24.2 —
Laura-Beth Thompson Conservative 6,423 17.3 —
Chris Furlong Other 4,349 11.7 —
Tom Shaw Lib Dems 2,302 6.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,554
Median age
39
Employment rate
69.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029