Riding profile
Heywood and Middleton North
The question
Heywood and Middleton North: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Heywood and Middleton North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mrs Elsie Blundell
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHeywood and Middleton North | 36.3% | 25.1% | 13.7% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +11.0 | 21.7% +3.4 | 18.9% −5.2 | 4.8% +5.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elsie Blundell Elected | Labour | 15,069 | 40.6 | — |
| Steve Potter | Reform UK | 8,987 | 24.2 | — |
| Laura-Beth Thompson | Conservative | 6,423 | 17.3 | — |
| Chris Furlong | Other | 4,349 | 11.7 | — |
| Tom Shaw | Lib Dems | 2,302 | 6.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029