Riding profile
Bolton North East
The question
Bolton North East: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Bolton North East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kirith Entwistle
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBolton North East | 32.5% | 23.6% | 18.1% | 16.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.2 | 21.7% +1.9 | 18.9% −0.8 | 11.8% +4.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirith Entwistle Elected | Labour | 16,166 | 37.3 | — |
| Adele Warren | Conservative | 9,513 | 21.9 | — |
| Trevor Jones | Reform UK | 9,428 | 21.7 | — |
| Hanif Alli | Green | 4,683 | 10.8 | — |
| Rebecca Forrest | Lib Dems | 1,507 | 3.5 | — |
| Syeda Kazmi | Other | 1,463 | 3.4 | — |
| Kevin Allsop | Other | 345 | 0.8 | — |
| John Partington | Other | 254 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029