Riding profile
Bolton North East
The question
Bolton North East: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBolton North East | 33.3% | 25.6% | 18.0% | 12.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.9 | 21.8% +3.8 | 19.3% −1.3 | 10.8% +1.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bolton North East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kirith Entwistle
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirith Entwistle Elected | Labour | 16,166 | 37.3 | — |
| Adele Warren | Conservative | 9,513 | 21.9 | — |
| Trevor Jones | Reform UK | 9,428 | 21.7 | — |
| Hanif Alli | Green | 4,683 | 10.8 | — |
| Rebecca Forrest | Lib Dems | 1,507 | 3.5 | — |
| Syeda Kazmi | Other | 1,463 | 3.4 | — |
| Kevin Allsop | Other | 345 | 0.8 | — |
| John Partington | Other | 254 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029