Riding profile

Bolton West

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Bolton West: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.9
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.3%
  • Labour 26.4%
  • Conservative 23.2%
  • Green 11.2%
  • Lib Dems 5.7%
  • Other 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereBolton West 31.3%26.4%23.2%11.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.9 21.8% +4.6 19.3% +3.9 10.8% +0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bolton West, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Phil Brickell

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
11.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Phil Brickell Elected Labour 17,363 38.9 —
Chris Green Conservative 12,418 27.8 —
Dylan Evans Reform UK 8,517 19.1 —
Vicki Attenborough Green 4,132 9.3 —
Donald Mcintosh Lib Dems 1,966 4.4 —
Patrick McGrath Other 202 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,084
Median age
42
Employment rate
79.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029