Riding profile
Bolton West
The question
Bolton West: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Bolton West, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Phil Brickell
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBolton West | 31.0% | 24.4% | 22.6% | 13.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.7 | 21.7% +2.8 | 18.9% +3.7 | 11.8% +1.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Brickell Elected | Labour | 17,363 | 38.9 | — |
| Chris Green | Conservative | 12,418 | 27.8 | — |
| Dylan Evans | Reform UK | 8,517 | 19.1 | — |
| Vicki Attenborough | Green | 4,132 | 9.3 | — |
| Donald Mcintosh | Lib Dems | 1,966 | 4.4 | — |
| Patrick McGrath | Other | 202 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029