Riding profile
Makerfield
The question
Makerfield: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Makerfield, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 44% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMakerfield | 43.8% | 28.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +18.5 | 21.7% +6.6 | 11.8% −2.1 | 11.6% −3.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Simons Elected | Labour | 18,202 | 45.2 | — |
| Robert Kenyon | Reform UK | 12,803 | 31.8 | — |
| Simon Finkelstein | Conservative | 4,379 | 10.9 | — |
| John Skipworth | Lib Dems | 2,735 | 6.8 | — |
| Maria Deery | Green | 1,776 | 4.4 | — |
| Thomas Bryer | Other | 368 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029