Riding profile

Makerfield

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Makerfield: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 38.8%
  • Reform UK 38.5%
  • Conservative 6.6%
  • Green 6.2%
  • Lib Dems 5.4%
  • Other 4.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereMakerfield 38.8%38.5%6.6%6.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +17.0 25.4% +13.1 19.3% −12.7 10.8% −4.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Makerfield, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 39% vote share, against 38% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
13.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Josh Simons Elected Labour 18,202 45.2
Robert Kenyon Reform UK 12,803 31.8
Simon Finkelstein Conservative 4,379 10.9
John Skipworth Lib Dems 2,735 6.8
Maria Deery Green 1,776 4.4
Thomas Bryer Other 368 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,742
Median age
43
Employment rate
69.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029