Riding profile
Warrington North
The question
Warrington North: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Warrington North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Charlotte Nichols
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWarrington North | 37.3% | 28.5% | 12.2% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +12.0 | 21.7% +6.8 | 18.9% −6.7 | 11.8% −0.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Nichols Elected | Labour | 18,730 | 46.8 | — |
| Trevor Nicholls | Reform UK | 9,540 | 23.8 | — |
| Yasmin Al-Atroshi | Conservative | 6,486 | 16.2 | — |
| David Crowther | Lib Dems | 2,737 | 6.8 | — |
| Hannah Spencer | Green | 1,889 | 4.7 | — |
| Maddison Wheeldon | Other | 659 | 1.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029