Riding profile

Warrington North

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Warrington North: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 37.1%
  • Labour 29.9%
  • Conservative 12.6%
  • Green 9.9%
  • Lib Dems 7.2%
  • Other 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereWarrington North 37.1%29.9%12.6%9.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +11.8 21.8% +8.1 19.3% −6.7 10.8% −0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Warrington North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Charlotte Nichols

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
22.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Charlotte Nichols Elected Labour 18,730 46.8 —
Trevor Nicholls Reform UK 9,540 23.8 —
Yasmin Al-Atroshi Conservative 6,486 16.2 —
David Crowther Lib Dems 2,737 6.8 —
Hannah Spencer Green 1,889 4.7 —
Maddison Wheeldon Other 659 1.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,005
Median age
42
Employment rate
72.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029