Riding profile
St Helens North
The question
St Helens North: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
St Helens North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 33% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
David Baines
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSt Helens North | 33.6% | 32.7% | 15.5% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +11.9 | 25.3% +7.4 | 11.8% +3.7 | 18.9% −9.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Baines Elected | Labour | 21,284 | 52.6 | — |
| Malcolm Webster | Reform UK | 9,115 | 22.5 | — |
| Jayne Rear | Conservative | 4,507 | 11.1 | — |
| Daniel Thomas | Green | 3,495 | 8.6 | — |
| Pat Moloney | Lib Dems | 1,799 | 4.4 | — |
| Joe Greenhalgh | Other | 274 | 0.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029