Riding profile

St Helens North

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

St Helens North: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.9%
  • Reform UK 35.2%
  • Green 10.1%
  • Conservative 9.9%
  • Lib Dems 5.1%
  • Other 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereSt Helens North 36.9%35.2%10.1%9.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +15.1 25.4% +9.9 10.8% −0.7 19.3% −9.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

St Helens North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 37% vote share, against 35% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

David Baines

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
30.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David Baines Elected Labour 21,284 52.6 —
Malcolm Webster Reform UK 9,115 22.5 —
Jayne Rear Conservative 4,507 11.1 —
Daniel Thomas Green 3,495 8.6 —
Pat Moloney Lib Dems 1,799 4.4 —
Joe Greenhalgh Other 274 0.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,983
Median age
42
Employment rate
78.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029