Riding profile

Widnes and Halewood

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Widnes and Halewood: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 41.6%
  • Reform UK 33.4%
  • Green 10.6%
  • Conservative 6.7%
  • Lib Dems 5.0%
  • Other 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereWidnes and Halewood 41.6%33.4%10.6%6.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +19.8 25.4% +8.0 10.8% −0.2 19.3% −12.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Widnes and Halewood, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 42% vote share, against 33% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Derek Twigg

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
43.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-34.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Derek Twigg Elected Labour 23,484 61.6
Jake Fraser Reform UK 7,059 18.5
Sean Houlston Conservative 3,507 9.2
Nancy Mills Green 2,058 5.4
David Coveney Lib Dems 1,593 4.2
Michael Murphy Other 415 1.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,808
Median age
41
Employment rate
78.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029