Riding profile
Runcorn and Helsby
The question
Runcorn and Helsby: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Runcorn and Helsby, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 32% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sarah Pochin
Sits with Reform UK
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.9
- P(close race)
- 98%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRuncorn and Helsby | 35.2% | 32.3% | 11.6% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.9 | 21.7% +10.6 | 18.9% −7.3 | 11.8% −0.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Amesbury Elected | Labour | 22,358 | 52.9 | — |
| Jason Moorcroft | Reform UK | 7,662 | 18.1 | — |
| Jade Marsden | Conservative | 6,756 | 16.0 | — |
| Chris Copeman | Green | 2,715 | 6.4 | — |
| Chris Rowe | Lib Dems | 2,149 | 5.1 | — |
| Danny Clarke | Other | 479 | 1.1 | — |
| Paul Murphy | Other | 116 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029