Riding profile

Runcorn and Helsby

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Runcorn and Helsby: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.9
P(close race)
92%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.4%
  • Reform UK 31.5%
  • Conservative 12.2%
  • Green 10.9%
  • Lib Dems 5.9%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereRuncorn and Helsby 36.4%31.5%12.2%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +14.6 25.4% +6.1 19.3% −7.1 10.8% +0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Runcorn and Helsby, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 32% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sarah Pochin

Sits with Reform UK

Since
2025-05-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
34.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mike Amesbury Elected Labour 22,358 52.9 —
Jason Moorcroft Reform UK 7,662 18.1 —
Jade Marsden Conservative 6,756 16.0 —
Chris Copeman Green 2,715 6.4 —
Chris Rowe Lib Dems 2,149 5.1 —
Danny Clarke Other 479 1.1 —
Paul Murphy Other 116 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,517
Median age
43
Employment rate
68.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029