Riding profile

St Helens South and Whiston

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

St Helens South and Whiston: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.2%
  • Reform UK 29.4%
  • Other 11.3%
  • Green 8.9%
  • Conservative 7.8%
  • Lib Dems 6.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Other Green
HereSt Helens South and Whiston 36.2%29.4%11.3%8.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +14.3 25.4% +4.1 5.0% +6.3 10.8% −1.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

St Helens South and Whiston, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ms Marie Rimmer

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
31.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie Rimmer Elected Labour 18,919 49.7
Raymond Peters Reform UK 6,974 18.3
James Tasker Other 4,244 11.2
Emma Ellison Conservative 3,057 8.0
Terence Price Green 2,642 7.0
Brian Spencer Lib Dems 2,199 5.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,584
Median age
42
Employment rate
72.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029