Riding profile

Liverpool Garston

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Liverpool Garston: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 45.3%
  • Reform UK 19.9%
  • Other 10.7%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Lib Dems 8.7%
  • Conservative 5.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Other Green
HereLiverpool Garston 45.3%19.9%10.7%9.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +23.5 25.4% −5.5 5.0% +5.7 10.8% −1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Liverpool Garston, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 45% vote share, against 20% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Maria Eagle

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
47.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Maria Eagle Elected Labour 24,510 58.4
Kiera Hubbard Reform UK 4,406 10.5
Sam Gorst Other 3,294 7.8
John Hyland Lib Dems 3,239 7.7
Daniel Bowman Conservative 2,943 7.0
Muryam Sheikh Green 2,816 6.7
Alan Tormey Other 401 0.9
Jane Lawrence Other 272 0.7
Frank Sweeney Other 112 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,178
Median age
41
Employment rate
63.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029