Riding profile
Rossendale and Darwen
The question
Rossendale and Darwen: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRossendale and Darwen | 35.4% | 25.4% | 23.2% | 9.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +10.0 | 21.8% +3.6 | 19.3% +3.9 | 10.8% −1.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Rossendale and Darwen, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Andy MacNae
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy MacNae Elected | Labour | 18,247 | 40.9 | — |
| Jake Berry | Conservative | 12,619 | 28.3 | — |
| Daniel Matchett | Reform UK | 9,695 | 21.7 | — |
| Bob Bauld | Green | 2,325 | 5.2 | — |
| Rowan Fitton | Lib Dems | 1,241 | 2.8 | — |
| Tayab Ali | Other | 491 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029