Riding profile
Hyndburn
The question
Hyndburn: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Hyndburn, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sarah Smith
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHyndburn | 31.9% | 25.0% | 19.6% | 18.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.6 | 18.9% +6.1 | 21.7% −2.0 | 11.8% +6.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Smith Elected | Labour | 12,186 | 33.5 | — |
| Sara Britcliffe | Conservative | 10,499 | 28.9 | — |
| Richard Oakley | Reform UK | 7,541 | 20.7 | — |
| Shabir Fazal | Green | 4,938 | 13.6 | — |
| Beth Waller-Slack | Lib Dems | 1,210 | 3.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029