Riding profile

Hyndburn

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Hyndburn: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.2%
  • Conservative 23.4%
  • Labour 21.1%
  • Green 16.1%
  • Lib Dems 4.0%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereHyndburn 34.2%23.4%21.1%16.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +8.8 19.3% +4.1 21.8% −0.8 10.8% +5.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hyndburn, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sarah Smith

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
4.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah Smith Elected Labour 12,186 33.5 —
Sara Britcliffe Conservative 10,499 28.9 —
Richard Oakley Reform UK 7,541 20.7 —
Shabir Fazal Green 4,938 13.6 —
Beth Waller-Slack Lib Dems 1,210 3.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,059
Median age
39
Employment rate
65.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029