Riding profile
Blackburn
The question
Blackburn: will Independent lose this seat to Other?
Current forecast
Other
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBlackburn | 41.9% | 20.0% | 16.6% | 12.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0% +36.9 | 25.4% −5.3 | 21.8% −5.2 | 10.8% +1.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Blackburn, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 42% vote share, against 20% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Adnan Hussain
Sits with Independent
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adnan Hussain Elected | Other | 10,518 | 27.1 | — |
| Kate Hollern | Labour | 10,386 | 26.7 | — |
| Craig Murray | Other | 7,105 | 18.3 | — |
| Tommy Temperley | Reform UK | 4,844 | 12.5 | — |
| Jamie McGowan | Conservative | 3,474 | 8.9 | — |
| Denise Morgan | Green | 1,416 | 3.6 | — |
| Adam Waller-Slack | Lib Dems | 689 | 1.8 | — |
| Tiger Patel | Other | 369 | 0.9 | — |
| Natasha Shah | Other | 86 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029