Riding profile

Blackburn

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Blackburn: will Independent lose this seat to Other?

Editorial read

Blackburn, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 38% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Adnan Hussain

Sits with Independent

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 37.8%
  • Reform UK 25.5%
  • Labour 15.0%
  • Green 10.9%
  • Conservative 6.8%
  • Lib Dems 3.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Reform UK Labour Green
HereBlackburn 37.8%25.5%15.0%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +33.0 25.3% +0.2 21.7% −6.7 11.8% −1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Other
Margin
19.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Adnan Hussain Elected Other 10,518 27.1
Kate Hollern Labour 10,386 26.7
Craig Murray Other 7,105 18.3
Tommy Temperley Reform UK 4,844 12.5
Jamie McGowan Conservative 3,474 8.9
Denise Morgan Green 1,416 3.6
Adam Waller-Slack Lib Dems 689 1.8
Tiger Patel Other 369 0.9
Natasha Shah Other 86 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
113,580
Median age
34
Employment rate
59.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029