Riding profile
Ribble Valley
The question
Ribble Valley: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Ribble Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Maya Ellis
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRibble Valley | 30.6% | 27.2% | 21.1% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.3 | 18.9% +8.3 | 21.7% −0.5 | 11.6% −1.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maya Ellis Elected | Labour | 18,177 | 34.9 | — |
| Nigel Evans | Conservative | 17,321 | 33.3 | — |
| John Carroll | Reform UK | 8,524 | 16.4 | — |
| John Potter | Lib Dems | 5,001 | 9.6 | — |
| Caroline Montague | Green | 1,727 | 3.3 | — |
| Qasim Ajmi | Other | 1,273 | 2.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029