Ribble Valley
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 61% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ribble Valley | 28.7% | 27.9% | 25.4% | 7.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.0%+8.7 | 26.5%+1.5 | 22.3%+3.1 | 9.9%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,739 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 81.6% |
Current member
Maya Ellis · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maya Ellis Elected | Labour | 18,177 | 34.9 |
| Nigel Evans | Conservative | 17,321 | 33.3 |
| John Carroll | Reform UK | 8,524 | 16.4 |
| John Potter | Lib Dems | 5,001 | 9.6 |
| Caroline Montague | Green | 1,727 | 3.3 |
| Qasim Ajmi | Other | 1,273 | 2.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Blackburn Other, safe seat
- Hyndburn Reform UK, toss-up
- Chorley Other, safe seat
- Rossendale and Darwen Labour, toss-up
- Pendle and Clitheroe Reform UK, toss-up
- Preston Labour, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated