Riding profile
Preston
The question
Preston: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Preston, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sir Mark Hendrick
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePreston | 29.5% | 22.8% | 18.7% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.1 | 21.7% +1.1 | 4.8% +13.9 | 18.9% −9.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Hendrick Elected | Labour | 14,006 | 35.0 | — |
| Michael Lavalette | Other | 8,715 | 21.8 | — |
| James Elliot | Reform UK | 5,738 | 14.3 | — |
| Trevor Hart | Conservative | 5,212 | 13.0 | — |
| Neil Darby | Lib Dems | 3,195 | 8.0 | — |
| Isabella Metcalf-Riener | Green | 1,751 | 4.4 | — |
| Yousuf Bhailok | Other | 891 | 2.2 | — |
| Joseph O'Meachair | Other | 216 | 0.5 | — |
| David Brooks | Other | 145 | 0.4 | — |
| Derek Killeen | Other | 124 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029