Riding profile

Preston

UK constituency — England · Urban · north west

The question

Preston: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 25.9%
  • Labour 23.8%
  • Other 20.8%
  • Green 10.9%
  • Conservative 10.7%
  • Lib Dems 7.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Other Green
HerePreston 25.9%23.8%20.8%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +0.5 21.8% +2.0 5.0% +15.8 10.8% +0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Preston, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 26% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sir Mark Hendrick

Sits with Labour

Since
2000-11-23
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mark Hendrick Elected Labour 14,006 35.0
Michael Lavalette Other 8,715 21.8
James Elliot Reform UK 5,738 14.3
Trevor Hart Conservative 5,212 13.0
Neil Darby Lib Dems 3,195 8.0
Isabella Metcalf-Riener Green 1,751 4.4
Yousuf Bhailok Other 891 2.2
Joseph O'Meachair Other 216 0.5
David Brooks Other 145 0.4
Derek Killeen Other 124 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
117,625
Median age
34
Employment rate
75.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029