Riding profile

Lancaster and Wyre

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Lancaster and Wyre: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.3%
  • Labour 29.3%
  • Conservative 18.1%
  • Green 15.7%
  • Lib Dems 4.2%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereLancaster and Wyre 31.3%29.3%18.1%15.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.0 21.8% +7.5 19.3% −1.2 10.8% +4.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Lancaster and Wyre, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Cat Smith

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Cat Smith Elected Labour 19,315 44.9 —
Peter Cartridge Conservative 10,062 23.4 —
Nigel Alderson Reform UK 6,866 16.0 —
Jack Lenox Green 5,236 12.2 —
Matt Severn Lib Dems 1,529 3.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,203
Median age
39
Employment rate
85.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029