Riding profile
Lancaster and Wyre
The question
Lancaster and Wyre: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Lancaster and Wyre, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Cat Smith
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 68%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLancaster and Wyre | 29.0% | 27.4% | 19.2% | 17.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +7.4 | 25.3% +2.1 | 18.9% +0.3 | 11.8% +5.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cat Smith Elected | Labour | 19,315 | 44.9 | — |
| Peter Cartridge | Conservative | 10,062 | 23.4 | — |
| Nigel Alderson | Reform UK | 6,866 | 16.0 | — |
| Jack Lenox | Green | 5,236 | 12.2 | — |
| Matt Severn | Lib Dems | 1,529 | 3.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029