Riding profile

Morecambe and Lunesdale

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north west

The question

Morecambe and Lunesdale: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.8%
  • Labour 23.9%
  • Conservative 23.8%
  • Lib Dems 10.3%
  • Green 8.6%
  • Other 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Lib Dems
HereMorecambe and Lunesdale 31.8%23.9%23.8%10.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.4 21.8% +2.1 19.3% +4.5 11.4% −1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Morecambe and Lunesdale, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Lizzi Collinge

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
12.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lizzi Collinge Elected Labour 19,603 40.8 —
David Morris Conservative 13,788 28.7 —
Barry Parsons Reform UK 7,810 16.3 —
Peter Jackson Lib Dems 4,769 9.9 —
Gina Dowding Green 2,089 4.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,951
Median age
49
Employment rate
83.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029