Riding profile
Morecambe and Lunesdale
The question
Morecambe and Lunesdale: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Morecambe and Lunesdale, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lizzi Collinge
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMorecambe and Lunesdale | 30.5% | 25.4% | 23.5% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.2 | 21.7% +3.8 | 18.9% +4.6 | 11.6% −0.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzi Collinge Elected | Labour | 19,603 | 40.8 | — |
| David Morris | Conservative | 13,788 | 28.7 | — |
| Barry Parsons | Reform UK | 7,810 | 16.3 | — |
| Peter Jackson | Lib Dems | 4,769 | 9.9 | — |
| Gina Dowding | Green | 2,089 | 4.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029