Riding profile
Fylde
The question
Fylde: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Fylde, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Andrew Snowden
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFylde | 33.2% | 26.3% | 17.6% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.9 | 18.9% +7.4 | 21.7% −4.1 | 4.8% +3.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Snowden Elected | Conservative | 15,917 | 33.2 | — |
| Tom Calver | Labour | 15,356 | 32.0 | — |
| Brook Wimbury | Reform UK | 8,295 | 17.3 | — |
| Anne Aitken | Other | 4,513 | 9.4 | — |
| Mark Jewell | Lib Dems | 2,120 | 4.4 | — |
| Brenden Wilkinson | Green | 1,560 | 3.3 | — |
| Cheryl Morrison | Other | 199 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029