Riding profile
Blackpool South
The question
Blackpool South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBlackpool South | 39.9% | 28.3% | 16.4% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +14.5 | 21.8% +6.5 | 19.3% −3.0 | 10.8% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Blackpool South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 40% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chris Webb
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Webb Elected | Labour | 16,916 | 48.1 | — |
| Mark Butcher | Reform UK | 10,068 | 28.6 | — |
| Zak Khan | Conservative | 5,504 | 15.7 | — |
| Ben Thomas | Green | 1,207 | 3.4 | — |
| Andrew Cregan | Lib Dems | 1,041 | 3.0 | — |
| Stephen Black | Other | 261 | 0.7 | — |
| Kim Knight | Other | 183 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029