Riding profile
Blackpool North and Fleetwood
The question
Blackpool North and Fleetwood: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBlackpool North and Fleetwood | 38.5% | 23.9% | 23.3% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +13.1 | 21.8% +2.1 | 19.3% +4.0 | 10.8% −3.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Blackpool North and Fleetwood, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lorraine Beavers
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorraine Beavers Elected | Labour | 16,744 | 40.0 | — |
| Paul Maynard | Conservative | 12,097 | 28.9 | — |
| Dan Barker | Reform UK | 9,913 | 23.7 | — |
| Bill Greene | Lib Dems | 1,318 | 3.1 | — |
| Tina Rothery | Green | 1,269 | 3.0 | — |
| James Rust | Other | 174 | 0.4 | — |
| Gita Gordon | Other | 148 | 0.3 | — |
| Jan Cresswell | Other | 147 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029