Riding profile
Barrow and Furness
The question
Barrow and Furness: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBarrow and Furness | 32.8% | 26.4% | 25.4% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.5 | 21.8% +4.6 | 19.3% +6.1 | 10.8% −2.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Barrow and Furness, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Michelle Scrogham
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Scrogham Elected | Labour | 18,537 | 43.9 | — |
| Simon Fell | Conservative | 13,213 | 31.3 | — |
| Barry Morgan | Reform UK | 7,035 | 16.7 | — |
| Adrian Waite | Lib Dems | 1,680 | 4.0 | — |
| Lorraine Wrennall | Green | 1,466 | 3.5 | — |
| Lisa Morgan | Other | 290 | 0.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029