Riding profile
Whitehaven and Workington
The question
Whitehaven and Workington: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWhitehaven and Workington | 37.7% | 31.3% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +12.3 | 21.8% +9.5 | 19.3% −3.2 | 10.8% −1.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Whitehaven and Workington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 31% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Josh MacAlister
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh MacAlister Elected | Labour | 22,173 | 53.0 | — |
| David Surtees | Reform UK | 8,887 | 21.2 | — |
| Andrew Johnson | Conservative | 8,455 | 20.2 | — |
| Jill Perry | Green | 1,207 | 2.9 | — |
| Chris Wills | Lib Dems | 1,118 | 2.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029