Riding profile
Penrith and Solway
The question
Penrith and Solway: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Penrith and Solway, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Markus Campbell-Savours
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePenrith and Solway | 31.2% | 24.1% | 23.7% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.8 | 18.9% +5.2 | 21.7% +2.0 | 11.6% −0.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Campbell-Savours Elected | Labour | 19,986 | 40.6 | — |
| Mark Jenkinson | Conservative | 14,729 | 29.9 | — |
| Matthew Moody | Reform UK | 7,624 | 15.5 | — |
| Julia Aglionby | Lib Dems | 4,742 | 9.6 | — |
| Susan Denham-Smith | Green | 1,730 | 3.5 | — |
| Chris Johnston | Other | 195 | 0.4 | — |
| Shaun Long | Other | 156 | 0.3 | — |
| Roy Ivinson | Other | 119 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029