Riding profile
Carlisle
The question
Carlisle: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Carlisle, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ms Julie Minns
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCarlisle | 33.6% | 23.8% | 23.2% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.3 | 21.7% +2.1 | 18.9% +4.3 | 11.8% −3.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julie Minns Elected | Labour | 18,129 | 39.4 | — |
| John Stevenson | Conservative | 12,929 | 28.1 | — |
| Stephen Ward | Reform UK | 9,295 | 20.2 | — |
| Brian Wernham | Lib Dems | 2,982 | 6.5 | — |
| Gavin Hawkton | Green | 1,922 | 4.2 | — |
| Sean Reed | Other | 303 | 0.7 | — |
| Rachel Hayton | Other | 244 | 0.5 | — |
| Thomas Lynestrider | Other | 175 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029