Riding profile

Midlothian

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Midlothian: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.9
P(close race)
59%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 29.5%
  • Reform UK 24.6%
  • Labour 23.9%
  • Lib Dems 7.0%
  • Conservative 6.7%
  • Green 5.7%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereMidlothian 29.5%24.6%23.9%7.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +26.7 25.4% −0.8 21.8% +2.0 11.4% −4.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Midlothian, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kirsty McNeill

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kirsty McNeill Elected Labour 21,480 48.6 —
Owen Thompson SNP 13,313 30.1 —
Stefan Garbowski Reform UK 3,276 7.4 —
Keith Cockburn Conservative 3,248 7.3 —
Ross Laird Lib Dems 2,589 5.9 —
Daniel Fraser Other 259 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
77.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029