Riding profile

Midlothian

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Midlothian: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Midlothian, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kirsty McNeill

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.9
P(close race)
55%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 27.9%
  • Labour 25.2%
  • Reform UK 22.4%
  • Lib Dems 8.0%
  • Green 7.4%
  • Conservative 6.8%
  • Other 2.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Lib Dems
HereMidlothian 27.9%25.2%22.4%8.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +25.4 21.7% +3.5 25.3% −2.9 11.6% −3.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kirsty McNeill Elected Labour 21,480 48.6
Owen Thompson SNP 13,313 30.1
Stefan Garbowski Reform UK 3,276 7.4
Keith Cockburn Conservative 3,248 7.3
Ross Laird Lib Dems 2,589 5.9
Daniel Fraser Other 259 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
77.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029