Riding profile
Edinburgh South West
The question
Edinburgh South West: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEdinburgh South West | 26.0% | 24.4% | 17.1% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +23.3 | 21.8% +2.6 | 25.4% −8.2 | 19.3% −8.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Edinburgh South West, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 26% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dr Scott Arthur
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Arthur Elected | Labour | 18,663 | 40.9 | — |
| Joanna Cherry | SNP | 12,446 | 27.3 | — |
| Sue Webber | Conservative | 5,558 | 12.2 | — |
| Dan Heap | Green | 3,450 | 7.6 | — |
| Bruce Wilson | Lib Dems | 3,014 | 6.6 | — |
| Ian Harper | Reform UK | 2,087 | 4.6 | — |
| Richard Lucas | Other | 265 | 0.6 | — |
| Marc Wilkinson | Other | 181 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029