Edinburgh South West
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 68% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh South West | 26.8% | 25.7% | 12.9% | 12.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8%+24.0 | 26.5%−0.8 | 22.3%−9.4 | 9.7%+3.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 82.0% |
|---|
Current member
Dr Scott Arthur · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.6 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Arthur Elected | Labour | 18,663 | 40.9 |
| Joanna Cherry | SNP | 12,446 | 27.3 |
| Sue Webber | Conservative | 5,558 | 12.2 |
| Dan Heap | Green | 3,450 | 7.6 |
| Bruce Wilson | Lib Dems | 3,014 | 6.6 |
| Ian Harper | Reform UK | 2,087 | 4.6 |
| Richard Lucas | Other | 265 | 0.6 |
| Marc Wilkinson | Other | 181 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Edinburgh West Lib Dems, safe seat
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, toss-up
- Edinburgh North and Leith SNP, toss-up
- Edinburgh South Labour, safe seat
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh SNP, competitive
- Livingston SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated