Riding profile

Edinburgh South West

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Edinburgh South West: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Edinburgh South West, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 27% vote share, against 24% for the SNP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dr Scott Arthur

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
93%
Mean margin (pts)
0.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 26.8%
  • SNP 24.4%
  • Reform UK 13.1%
  • Conservative 10.4%
  • Green 10.2%
  • Lib Dems 8.9%
  • Other 6.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour SNP Reform UK Conservative
HereEdinburgh South West 26.8%24.4%13.1%10.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +5.2 2.5% +21.9 25.3% −12.3 18.9% −8.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
13.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Scott Arthur Elected Labour 18,663 40.9
Joanna Cherry SNP 12,446 27.3
Sue Webber Conservative 5,558 12.2
Dan Heap Green 3,450 7.6
Bruce Wilson Lib Dems 3,014 6.6
Ian Harper Reform UK 2,087 4.6
Richard Lucas Other 265 0.6
Marc Wilkinson Other 181 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
82.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029