Livingston
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston | 32.6% | 23.1% | 21.0% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8%+29.8 | 26.5%−3.4 | 22.3%−1.3 | 9.7%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 79.5% |
|---|
Current member
Gregor Poynton · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 7.9 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 9.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gregor Poynton Elected | Labour | 18,324 | 40.9 |
| Hannah Bardell | SNP | 14,796 | 33.0 |
| David McLennan | Reform UK | 3,977 | 8.9 |
| Damian Doran-Timson | Conservative | 3,469 | 7.7 |
| Caron Lindsay | Lib Dems | 2,025 | 4.5 |
| Cameron Glasgow | Green | 1,704 | 3.8 |
| Debbie Ewen | Other | 545 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bathgate and Linlithgow Labour, toss-up
- Edinburgh West Lib Dems, safe seat
- Edinburgh South West SNP, toss-up
- Alloa and Grangemouth SNP, toss-up
- Dunfermline and Dollar SNP, toss-up
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated