Riding profile

Livingston

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Livingston: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Editorial read

Livingston, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gregor Poynton

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.8
P(close race)
7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 30.4%
  • Reform UK 24.9%
  • Labour 18.9%
  • Green 8.4%
  • Conservative 7.0%
  • Lib Dems 6.1%
  • Other 4.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Labour Green
HereLivingston 30.4%24.9%18.9%8.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +27.8 25.3% −0.5 21.7% −2.7 11.8% −3.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
7.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gregor Poynton Elected Labour 18,324 40.9
Hannah Bardell SNP 14,796 33.0
David McLennan Reform UK 3,977 8.9
Damian Doran-Timson Conservative 3,469 7.7
Caron Lindsay Lib Dems 2,025 4.5
Cameron Glasgow Green 1,704 3.8
Debbie Ewen Other 545 1.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
79.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029