Riding profile

Livingston

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Livingston: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 30.5%
  • Reform UK 28.1%
  • Labour 16.6%
  • Green 9.5%
  • Conservative 6.9%
  • Lib Dems 5.3%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Labour Green
HereLivingston 30.5%28.1%16.6%9.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +27.7 25.4% +2.7 21.8% −5.2 10.8% −1.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Livingston, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Gregor Poynton

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
7.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gregor Poynton Elected Labour 18,324 40.9 —
Hannah Bardell SNP 14,796 33.0 —
David McLennan Reform UK 3,977 8.9 —
Damian Doran-Timson Conservative 3,469 7.7 —
Caron Lindsay Lib Dems 2,025 4.5 —
Cameron Glasgow Green 1,704 3.8 —
Debbie Ewen Other 545 1.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
79.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029