Riding profile
Dunfermline and Dollar
The question
Dunfermline and Dollar: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.8
- P(close race)
- 99%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDunfermline and Dollar | 27.8% | 25.1% | 18.2% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +25.1 | 25.4% −0.3 | 21.8% −3.6 | 10.8% −0.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Dunfermline and Dollar, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Graeme Downie
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graeme Downie Elected | Labour | 20,336 | 45.7 | — |
| Naz Anis-Miah | SNP | 12,095 | 27.2 | — |
| Thomas Heald | Conservative | 3,297 | 7.4 | — |
| Lauren Buchanan-Quigley | Lib Dems | 3,181 | 7.1 | — |
| Udo van den Brock | Reform UK | 2,887 | 6.5 | — |
| Ryan Blackadder | Green | 2,078 | 4.7 | — |
| Graham Hadley | Other | 324 | 0.7 | — |
| Danny Smith | Other | 251 | 0.6 | — |
| George Morton | Other | 88 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029