Riding profile
Falkirk
The question
Falkirk: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.5
- P(close race)
- 89%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFalkirk | 31.2% | 26.7% | 13.9% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +28.4 | 25.4% +1.3 | 21.8% −7.9 | 10.8% −1.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Falkirk, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 31% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Euan Stainbank
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euan Stainbank Elected | Labour | 18,343 | 43.0 | — |
| Toni Giugliano | SNP | 13,347 | 31.3 | — |
| James Bundy | Conservative | 3,576 | 8.4 | — |
| Keith Barrow | Reform UK | 3,375 | 7.9 | — |
| Rachel Kidd | Green | 1,711 | 4.0 | — |
| Tim McKay | Lib Dems | 1,092 | 2.6 | — |
| Mark Tunnicliff | Other | 600 | 1.4 | — |
| Zohaib Arshad | Other | 581 | 1.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029