Riding profile
Falkirk
The question
Falkirk: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Falkirk, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Euan Stainbank
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.9
- P(close race)
- 98%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFalkirk | 29.6% | 26.1% | 19.3% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.5% +27.1 | 25.3% +0.7 | 21.7% −2.4 | 18.9% −10.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euan Stainbank Elected | Labour | 18,343 | 43.0 | — |
| Toni Giugliano | SNP | 13,347 | 31.3 | — |
| James Bundy | Conservative | 3,576 | 8.4 | — |
| Keith Barrow | Reform UK | 3,375 | 7.9 | — |
| Rachel Kidd | Green | 1,711 | 4.0 | — |
| Tim McKay | Lib Dems | 1,092 | 2.6 | — |
| Mark Tunnicliff | Other | 600 | 1.4 | — |
| Zohaib Arshad | Other | 581 | 1.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029