Bathgate and Linlithgow
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 81%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | SNP | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bathgate and Linlithgow | 29.6% | 26.7% | 19.5% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+3.1 | 2.8%+23.9 | 22.3%−2.8 | 9.7%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 83.2% |
|---|
Current member
Kirsteen Sullivan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 19.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirsteen Sullivan Elected | Labour | 19,774 | 47.0 |
| Martyn Day | SNP | 11,451 | 27.2 |
| Jamie McNamee | Reform UK | 3,524 | 8.4 |
| Lynn Munro | Conservative | 3,144 | 7.5 |
| Sally Pattle | Lib Dems | 2,171 | 5.2 |
| Simon Jay | Green | 1,390 | 3.3 |
| John Hannah | Other | 382 | 0.9 |
| Stuart McArthur | Other | 229 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alloa and Grangemouth SNP, toss-up
- Livingston SNP, safe seat
- Dunfermline and Dollar SNP, toss-up
- Falkirk SNP, competitive
- Edinburgh West Lib Dems, safe seat
- Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated