Riding profile
Bathgate and Linlithgow
The question
Bathgate and Linlithgow: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.1
- P(close race)
- 99%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBathgate and Linlithgow | 29.6% | 26.6% | 17.3% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +26.9 | 25.4% +1.2 | 21.8% −4.5 | 10.8% −1.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bathgate and Linlithgow, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Kirsteen Sullivan
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirsteen Sullivan Elected | Labour | 19,774 | 47.0 | — |
| Martyn Day | SNP | 11,451 | 27.2 | — |
| Jamie McNamee | Reform UK | 3,524 | 8.4 | — |
| Lynn Munro | Conservative | 3,144 | 7.5 | — |
| Sally Pattle | Lib Dems | 2,171 | 5.2 | — |
| Simon Jay | Green | 1,390 | 3.3 | — |
| John Hannah | Other | 382 | 0.9 | — |
| Stuart McArthur | Other | 229 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029