Riding profile

Bathgate and Linlithgow

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Bathgate and Linlithgow: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Bathgate and Linlithgow, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 26% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kirsteen Sullivan

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 25.9%
  • Labour 24.1%
  • Reform UK 22.1%
  • Green 8.6%
  • Lib Dems 7.3%
  • Conservative 7.3%
  • Other 4.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Green
HereBathgate and Linlithgow 25.9%24.1%22.1%8.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +23.3 21.7% +2.4 25.3% −3.2 11.8% −3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
19.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kirsteen Sullivan Elected Labour 19,774 47.0
Martyn Day SNP 11,451 27.2
Jamie McNamee Reform UK 3,524 8.4
Lynn Munro Conservative 3,144 7.5
Sally Pattle Lib Dems 2,171 5.2
Simon Jay Green 1,390 3.3
John Hannah Other 382 0.9
Stuart McArthur Other 229 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
83.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029