Riding profile

Edinburgh West

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Edinburgh West: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Edinburgh West, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 48% vote share, against 16% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Christine Jardine

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 48.4%
  • SNP 16.0%
  • Reform UK 13.8%
  • Green 7.5%
  • Other 5.5%
  • Conservative 4.6%
  • Labour 4.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems SNP Reform UK Green
HereEdinburgh West 48.4%16.0%13.8%7.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +36.7 2.5% +13.5 25.3% −11.5 11.8% −4.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
31.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christine Jardine Elected Lib Dems 26,645 50.8
Euan Hyslop SNP 10,175 19.4
Michael Davidson Labour 7,854 15.0
Alastair Shields Conservative 2,897 5.5
Otto Inglis Reform UK 2,209 4.2
James Puchowski Green 2,100 4.0
David Henry Other 363 0.7
Nick Hornig Other 143 0.3
Tam Laird Other 85 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
83.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029