Riding profile

Edinburgh West

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Edinburgh West: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 49.2%
  • SNP 17.9%
  • Reform UK 14.2%
  • Green 7.7%
  • Conservative 4.8%
  • Labour 3.8%
  • Other 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems SNP Reform UK Green
HereEdinburgh West 49.2%17.9%14.2%7.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +37.9 2.8% +15.2 25.4% −11.2 10.8% −3.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Edinburgh West, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 49% vote share, against 18% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Christine Jardine

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
31.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christine Jardine Elected Lib Dems 26,645 50.8 —
Euan Hyslop SNP 10,175 19.4 —
Michael Davidson Labour 7,854 15.0 —
Alastair Shields Conservative 2,897 5.5 —
Otto Inglis Reform UK 2,209 4.2 —
James Puchowski Green 2,100 4.0 —
David Henry Other 363 0.7 —
Nick Hornig Other 143 0.3 —
Tam Laird Other 85 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
83.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029