Riding profile

Edinburgh North and Leith

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Edinburgh North and Leith: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Edinburgh North and Leith, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 26% vote share, against 24% for the SNP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Tracy Gilbert

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
84%
Mean margin (pts)
0.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 25.6%
  • SNP 24.3%
  • Reform UK 13.7%
  • Green 11.3%
  • Lib Dems 11.2%
  • Other 7.9%
  • Conservative 5.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour SNP Reform UK Green
HereEdinburgh North and Leith 25.6%24.3%13.7%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +3.9 2.5% +21.8 25.3% −11.7 11.8% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
14.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tracy Gilbert Elected Labour 20,805 42.0
Deidre Brock SNP 13,537 27.4
Kayleigh O'Neill Green 5,417 10.9
Mike Andersen Lib Dems 3,879 7.8
Joanna Mowat Conservative 3,254 6.6
Alan Melville Reform UK 1,818 3.7
David Jacobsen Other 227 0.5
Niel Deepnarain Other 210 0.4
Richard Shillcock Other 189 0.4
Caroline Waterloo Other 139 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
86.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029