Riding profile
Edinburgh North and Leith
The question
Edinburgh North and Leith: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.3
- P(close race)
- 24%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Labour | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEdinburgh North and Leith | 27.4% | 22.1% | 15.1% | 13.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +24.7 | 21.8% +0.3 | 10.8% +4.3 | 25.4% −12.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Edinburgh North and Leith, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 27% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Tracy Gilbert
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracy Gilbert Elected | Labour | 20,805 | 42.0 | — |
| Deidre Brock | SNP | 13,537 | 27.4 | — |
| Kayleigh O'Neill | Green | 5,417 | 10.9 | — |
| Mike Andersen | Lib Dems | 3,879 | 7.8 | — |
| Joanna Mowat | Conservative | 3,254 | 6.6 | — |
| Alan Melville | Reform UK | 1,818 | 3.7 | — |
| David Jacobsen | Other | 227 | 0.5 | — |
| Niel Deepnarain | Other | 210 | 0.4 | — |
| Richard Shillcock | Other | 189 | 0.4 | — |
| Caroline Waterloo | Other | 139 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029