Riding profile

Edinburgh North and Leith

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Edinburgh North and Leith: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
24%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 27.4%
  • Labour 22.1%
  • Green 15.1%
  • Reform UK 13.4%
  • Lib Dems 11.6%
  • Conservative 7.1%
  • Other 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Green Reform UK
HereEdinburgh North and Leith 27.4%22.1%15.1%13.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +24.7 21.8% +0.3 10.8% +4.3 25.4% −12.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Edinburgh North and Leith, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 27% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Tracy Gilbert

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
14.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tracy Gilbert Elected Labour 20,805 42.0
Deidre Brock SNP 13,537 27.4
Kayleigh O'Neill Green 5,417 10.9
Mike Andersen Lib Dems 3,879 7.8
Joanna Mowat Conservative 3,254 6.6
Alan Melville Reform UK 1,818 3.7
David Jacobsen Other 227 0.5
Niel Deepnarain Other 210 0.4
Richard Shillcock Other 189 0.4
Caroline Waterloo Other 139 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
86.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029