Edinburgh North and Leith
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 59% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh North and Leith | 27.2% | 26.7% | 16.0% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8%+24.4 | 26.5%+0.2 | 9.7%+6.4 | 22.3%−11.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 86.3% |
|---|
Current member
Tracy Gilbert · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 14.7 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tracy Gilbert Elected | Labour | 20,805 | 42.1 |
| Deidre Brock | SNP | 13,537 | 27.4 |
| Kayleigh O'Neill | Green | 5,417 | 10.9 |
| Mike Andersen | Lib Dems | 3,879 | 7.8 |
| Joanna Mowat | Conservative | 3,254 | 6.6 |
| Alan Melville | Reform UK | 1,818 | 3.7 |
| David Jacobsen | Other | 227 | 0.5 |
| Niel Deepnarain | Other | 210 | 0.4 |
| Richard Shillcock | Other | 189 | 0.4 |
| Caroline Waterloo | Other | 139 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Edinburgh South Labour, safe seat
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh SNP, competitive
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, toss-up
- Edinburgh South West SNP, toss-up
- Midlothian SNP, toss-up
- Edinburgh West Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated