Riding profile

Edinburgh South

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Edinburgh South: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Edinburgh South, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 16% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ian Murray

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 35.3%
  • SNP 16.4%
  • Green 11.5%
  • Reform UK 11.4%
  • Other 8.7%
  • Lib Dems 8.3%
  • Conservative 8.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour SNP Green Reform UK
HereEdinburgh South 35.3%16.4%11.5%11.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +13.6 2.5% +13.8 11.8% −0.3 25.3% −13.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
36.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ian Murray Elected Labour 24,976 53.3
Simita Kumar SNP 7,725 16.5
Jo Phillips Green 4,270 9.1
Christopher Cowdy Conservative 4,001 8.5
Andy Williamson Lib Dems 2,746 5.9
Cameron Rose Reform UK 1,845 3.9
Alex Martin Other 466 1.0
Lynne Lyon Other 454 1.0
Phil Holden Other 267 0.6
Mark Rowbotham Other 76 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
78.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029