Riding profile
Edinburgh South
The question
Edinburgh South: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | SNP | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEdinburgh South | 39.6% | 18.9% | 13.2% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +17.8 | 2.8% +16.2 | 25.4% −12.1 | 10.8% −0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Edinburgh South, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 40% vote share, against 19% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ian Murray
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Murray Elected | Labour | 24,976 | 53.3 | — |
| Simita Kumar | SNP | 7,725 | 16.5 | — |
| Jo Phillips | Green | 4,270 | 9.1 | — |
| Christopher Cowdy | Conservative | 4,001 | 8.5 | — |
| Andy Williamson | Lib Dems | 2,746 | 5.9 | — |
| Cameron Rose | Reform UK | 1,845 | 3.9 | — |
| Alex Martin | Other | 466 | 1.0 | — |
| Lynne Lyon | Other | 454 | 1.0 | — |
| Phil Holden | Other | 267 | 0.6 | — |
| Mark Rowbotham | Other | 76 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029