Riding profile
Edinburgh South
The question
Edinburgh South: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Edinburgh South, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 16% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ian Murray
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | SNP | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEdinburgh South | 35.3% | 16.4% | 11.5% | 11.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +13.6 | 2.5% +13.8 | 11.8% −0.3 | 25.3% −13.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Murray Elected | Labour | 24,976 | 53.3 | — |
| Simita Kumar | SNP | 7,725 | 16.5 | — |
| Jo Phillips | Green | 4,270 | 9.1 | — |
| Christopher Cowdy | Conservative | 4,001 | 8.5 | — |
| Andy Williamson | Lib Dems | 2,746 | 5.9 | — |
| Cameron Rose | Reform UK | 1,845 | 3.9 | — |
| Alex Martin | Other | 466 | 1.0 | — |
| Lynne Lyon | Other | 454 | 1.0 | — |
| Phil Holden | Other | 267 | 0.6 | — |
| Mark Rowbotham | Other | 76 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029