Riding profile

Edinburgh East and Musselburgh

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Edinburgh East and Musselburgh: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 29% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chris Murray

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 29.4%
  • Labour 27.8%
  • Reform UK 12.4%
  • Green 11.5%
  • Lib Dems 7.0%
  • Other 6.2%
  • Conservative 5.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Green
HereEdinburgh East and Musselburgh 29.4%27.8%12.4%11.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +26.8 21.7% +6.1 25.3% −12.9 11.8% −0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Murray Elected Labour 18,790 41.2
Tommy Sheppard SNP 15,075 33.1
Amanda Grimm Green 4,669 10.2
Marie-Clair Munro Conservative 2,598 5.7
Derek Winton Reform UK 2,129 4.7
Charles Dundas Lib Dems 1,949 4.3
Jane Gould Other 365 0.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
84.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029