Riding profile

Edinburgh East and Musselburgh

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Edinburgh East and Musselburgh: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.7%
  • SNP 29.0%
  • Reform UK 14.0%
  • Green 13.1%
  • Conservative 5.5%
  • Lib Dems 5.2%
  • Other 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour SNP Reform UK Green
HereEdinburgh East and Musselburgh 30.7%29.0%14.0%13.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +8.8 2.8% +26.2 25.4% −11.4 10.8% +2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for the SNP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chris Murray

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Murray Elected Labour 18,790 41.2 —
Tommy Sheppard SNP 15,075 33.1 —
Amanda Grimm Green 4,669 10.2 —
Marie-Clair Munro Conservative 2,598 5.7 —
Derek Winton Reform UK 2,129 4.7 —
Charles Dundas Lib Dems 1,949 4.3 —
Jane Gould Other 365 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
84.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029