Riding profile
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy
The question
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | 29.7% | 22.4% | 19.9% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +27.0 | 25.4% −3.0 | 21.8% −1.9 | 10.8% −1.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 30% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Melanie Ward
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melanie Ward Elected | Labour | 18,662 | 45.7 | — |
| Lesley Backhouse | SNP | 11,414 | 28.0 | — |
| Jonathan Gray | Conservative | 3,203 | 7.8 | — |
| Sonia Davidson | Reform UK | 3,128 | 7.7 | — |
| Fraser Graham | Lib Dems | 1,593 | 3.9 | — |
| Mags Hall | Green | 1,556 | 3.8 | — |
| Neale Hanvey | Other | 1,132 | 2.8 | — |
| Calum Paul | Other | 126 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029