Riding profile
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy
The question
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 26% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Melanie Ward
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | 25.6% | 23.3% | 23.1% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.5% +23.1 | 21.7% +1.6 | 25.3% −2.2 | 11.8% −2.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melanie Ward Elected | Labour | 18,662 | 45.7 | — |
| Lesley Backhouse | SNP | 11,414 | 28.0 | — |
| Jonathan Gray | Conservative | 3,203 | 7.8 | — |
| Sonia Davidson | Reform UK | 3,128 | 7.7 | — |
| Fraser Graham | Lib Dems | 1,593 | 3.9 | — |
| Mags Hall | Green | 1,556 | 3.8 | — |
| Neale Hanvey | Other | 1,132 | 2.8 | — |
| Calum Paul | Other | 126 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029