Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 77%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | 30.4% | 27.3% | 17.4% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8%+27.6 | 26.5%+0.8 | 22.3%−4.9 | 9.7%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 77.5% |
|---|
Current member
Melanie Ward · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 17.8 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 3.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melanie Ward Elected | Labour | 18,662 | 45.7 |
| Lesley Backhouse | SNP | 11,414 | 28.0 |
| Jonathan Gray | Conservative | 3,203 | 7.8 |
| Sonia Davidson | Reform UK | 3,128 | 7.7 |
| Fraser Graham | Lib Dems | 1,593 | 3.9 |
| Mags Hall | Green | 1,556 | 3.8 |
| Neale Hanvey | Other | 1,132 | 2.8 |
| Calum Paul | Other | 126 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Edinburgh West Lib Dems, safe seat
- Edinburgh North and Leith SNP, toss-up
- Edinburgh South West SNP, toss-up
- Edinburgh South Labour, safe seat
- Glenrothes and Mid Fife SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh SNP, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated