Riding profile

Glenrothes and Mid Fife

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Glenrothes and Mid Fife: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 37.5%
  • Reform UK 22.8%
  • Labour 21.2%
  • Green 6.4%
  • Lib Dems 5.9%
  • Conservative 4.8%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Labour Green
HereGlenrothes and Mid Fife 37.5%22.8%21.2%6.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +34.8 25.4% −2.6 21.8% −0.6 10.8% −4.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Glenrothes and Mid Fife, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 38% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Richard Baker

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Richard Baker Elected Labour 15,994 44.3 —
John Beare SNP 13,040 36.1 —
Ian Smith Reform UK 3,528 9.8 —
Debbie MacCallum Conservative 1,973 5.5 —
Jill Reilly Lib Dems 1,604 4.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
72.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029