Riding profile

Perth and Kinross-shire

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Perth and Kinross-shire: a safe seat for the SNP?

Editorial read

Perth and Kinross-shire, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 32% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Pete Wishart

Sits with SNP

Since
2001-06-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.9
P(close race)
8%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 31.6%
  • Conservative 25.7%
  • Reform UK 19.1%
  • Lib Dems 8.7%
  • Labour 6.8%
  • Green 4.8%
  • Other 3.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems
HerePerth and Kinross-shire 31.6%25.7%19.1%8.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +29.1 18.9% +6.8 25.3% −6.2 11.6% −2.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
SNP
Margin
8.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pete Wishart Elected SNP 18,928 37.8
Luke Graham Conservative 14,801 29.6
Graham Cox Labour 9,018 18.0
Amanda Clark Lib Dems 3,681 7.3
Helen McDade Reform UK 2,970 5.9
Sally Hughes Other 679 1.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
74.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029