Riding profile

Perth and Kinross-shire

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Perth and Kinross-shire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.2
P(close race)
93%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 30.8%
  • Conservative 26.6%
  • Reform UK 21.4%
  • Lib Dems 9.2%
  • Green 4.8%
  • Labour 4.4%
  • Other 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems
HerePerth and Kinross-shire 30.8%26.6%21.4%9.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +28.0 19.3% +7.3 25.4% −4.0 11.4% −2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Perth and Kinross-shire, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 31% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Pete Wishart

Sits with SNP

Since
2001-06-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
SNP
Margin
8.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pete Wishart Elected SNP 18,928 37.8 —
Luke Graham Conservative 14,801 29.6 —
Graham Cox Labour 9,018 18.0 —
Amanda Clark Lib Dems 3,681 7.3 —
Helen McDade Reform UK 2,970 5.9 —
Sally Hughes Other 679 1.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
74.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029