Riding profile

Dundee Central

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Dundee Central: a safe seat for the SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 37.4%
  • Labour 28.9%
  • Reform UK 11.9%
  • Other 7.1%
  • Lib Dems 6.5%
  • Conservative 6.0%
  • Green 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Other
HereDundee Central 37.4%28.9%11.9%7.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +34.6 21.8% +7.0 25.4% −13.5 5.0% +2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Dundee Central, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 37% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Chris Law

Sits with SNP

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
SNP
Margin
1.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Law Elected SNP 15,544 40.0
Richard McCready Labour 14,869 38.3
Daniel Coleman Lib Dems 2,402 6.2
Vicky McCann Reform UK 2,363 6.1
Emma Farquhar Conservative 1,569 4.0
Alan Ross Other 813 2.1
Jim McFarlane Other 600 1.5
Susan Ettle Other 357 0.9
Raymond Mennie Other 192 0.5
Niko Omilana Other 139 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
64.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029