Riding profile

Angus and Perthshire Glens

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Angus and Perthshire Glens: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 33.2%
  • Conservative 29.9%
  • Reform UK 19.4%
  • Lib Dems 7.9%
  • Green 3.9%
  • Other 3.0%
  • Labour 2.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems
HereAngus and Perthshire Glens 33.2%29.9%19.4%7.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +30.4 19.3% +10.5 25.4% −6.0 11.4% −3.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Angus and Perthshire Glens, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dave Doogan

Sits with SNP

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
SNP
Margin
10.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dave Doogan Elected SNP 19,142 40.4
Stephen Kerr Conservative 14,272 30.1
Elizabeth Carr-Ellis Labour 6,799 14.4
Kenneth Morton Reform UK 3,246 6.9
Claire McLaren Lib Dems 3,156 6.7
Dan Peña Other 733 1.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
73.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029