Riding profile
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
The question
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | SNP | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWest Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | 32.2% | 25.1% | 22.1% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +12.9 | 25.4% −0.2 | 2.8% +19.3 | 11.4% +0.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Andrew Bowie
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bowie Elected | Conservative | 17,428 | 35.6 | — |
| Glen Reynolds | SNP | 13,987 | 28.6 | — |
| Kate Blake | Labour | 6,397 | 13.1 | — |
| Michael Turvey | Lib Dems | 6,342 | 12.9 | — |
| Brandon Innes | Reform UK | 3,497 | 7.1 | — |
| William Linegar | Green | 1,032 | 2.1 | — |
| Iris Leask | Other | 219 | 0.5 | — |
| David Neill | Other | 56 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029