Riding profile
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
The question
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Andrew Bowie
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | SNP | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWest Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | 30.9% | 23.9% | 20.2% | 14.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +12.0 | 2.5% +21.4 | 25.3% −5.2 | 11.6% +2.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bowie Elected | Conservative | 17,428 | 35.6 | — |
| Glen Reynolds | SNP | 13,987 | 28.6 | — |
| Kate Blake | Labour | 6,397 | 13.1 | — |
| Michael Turvey | Lib Dems | 6,342 | 12.9 | — |
| Brandon Innes | Reform UK | 3,497 | 7.1 | — |
| William Linegar | Green | 1,032 | 2.1 | — |
| Iris Leask | Other | 219 | 0.5 | — |
| David Neill | Other | 56 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029