Riding profile
Aberdeen South
The question
Aberdeen South: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.7
- P(close race)
- 68%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | SNP | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAberdeen South | 31.4% | 26.7% | 16.2% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +12.1 | 2.8% +23.9 | 25.4% −9.2 | 21.8% −10.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Aberdeen South, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 27% for the SNP, and the race could swing.
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Flynn Elected | SNP | 15,213 | 32.8 | — |
| Mohammad Malik | Labour | 11,455 | 24.7 | — |
| John Wheeler | Conservative | 11,300 | 24.4 | — |
| Michael Pearce | Reform UK | 3,199 | 6.9 | — |
| Jeff Goodhall | Lib Dems | 2,921 | 6.3 | — |
| Guy Ingerson | Green | 1,609 | 3.5 | — |
| Graeme Craib | Other | 423 | 0.9 | — |
| Sophie Molly | Other | 225 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Aberdeen NorthSNP Safe seatOpen →
- Gordon and BuchanConservative Toss-upOpen →
- Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastConservative Toss-upOpen →
- West Aberdeenshire and KincardineConservative Safe seatOpen →
- Angus and Perthshire GlensSNP Toss-upOpen →
- Arbroath and Broughty FerrySNP Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029