Riding profile
Aberdeen South
The question
Aberdeen South: a safe seat for the SNP?
Editorial read
Aberdeen South, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAberdeen South | 28.2% | 25.6% | 14.7% | 11.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.5% +25.7 | 18.9% +6.8 | 25.3% −10.7 | 21.7% −9.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Flynn Elected | SNP | 15,213 | 32.8 | — |
| Mohammad Malik | Labour | 11,455 | 24.7 | — |
| John Wheeler | Conservative | 11,300 | 24.4 | — |
| Michael Pearce | Reform UK | 3,199 | 6.9 | — |
| Jeff Goodhall | Lib Dems | 2,921 | 6.3 | — |
| Guy Ingerson | Green | 1,609 | 3.5 | — |
| Graeme Craib | Other | 423 | 0.9 | — |
| Sophie Molly | Other | 225 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029